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What are the odds?

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Who is going to the LAN finals in mid-April?

We know that Sequential and Another One are confirmed for the LAN finals. They’re going, no matter what happens tonight. But the way they play tonight will have an effect on the other hopefuls for the LAN finals – and the lion’s share of the 10k+ of prizes. They’re going up against JAM and InVidious, respectively, with greater and lesser consequences.

InVidious vs Another One

Let’s talk about InVidious first. InVidious is currently ranked third with a W/L of 4/2. If InVidious beats Another One tonight, they’ll pip Another One to the second-place post, because they’ll have identical Win/Loss ratios but their F/A will be higher. If InVidious loses tonight, they’ll remain in third spot, with a W/L of 4/3. That W/L could be equaled if JAM wins tonight. But even if InVidious loses 5-0, and JAM wins 5-0, InVidious’ F/A ratio (1.72) still beats JAM’s (1.33) which means that InVidious will make it through ahed of JAM on their F/A performance.

So the only thing that tonight’s match between InVidious and Another One will decide is who goes to the LAN in second and third seed. And because of this the match doesn’t have huge consequences either way for the other teams hoping to make it to the LAN finals. So it’s fitting that we get that match out of the way as quickly as possible so that we can get to the meaty part of the evening’s broadcasting.

Four remaining teams have a shot at the fourth spot at the CGPL LAN finals: JAM Gaming, Allstars, Supremacy and Alpha Sydney. Let’s take a look at the permutations:

JAM Gaming vs Sequential Gaming

JAM are the front-runners for the 4th spot. They have 3 wins and 3 losses. All they need is a win to make it through. There’s no debate about whether they must win with three, four or five games. A win puts them at W/L of 4/3 and that means that the other three hopefuls are knocked out. Easier said than done, though, because their opponent tonight is Sequential Gaming and JAM Gaming has never beaten Sequential Gaming in the CGPL. In fact, JAM hasn’t beaten SQL in Season 2 at all: they’ve faced each other twice outside of CGPL and both times SQL won.

So JAM Gaming have only themselves to rely on to make it through. That’s not the case for the other three hopefuls. If JAM wins, all the maths in the world won’t get the other three into the LAN finals. Even if JAM loses, they’re STILL in with a chance to get through, because their W/L will be at 3/4 and that means they will end up being tied with two other teams after tonight’s matches, and then the F/A will come into play to break the tie.

So who are the other two teams that will share the three-way tie with JAM? Assuming JAM loses, of course. No, its not unfair to assume they’re going to lose. We just have to assume they’ll lose for the rest of this article to make sense. It’s a mathematical assumption, not a statement of their chances! Here’s the potential F/As if they do lose:

 

CGPL Autumn 2016 - JAM permutations

Allstars vs Alpha Sydney

The Allstars are on a W/L of 2/4 and F/A of 14/16 (0.875). They’re going up against Alpha Sydney, who are on 2/4 and 0.579. Whoever wins their match will go through to the three-way tie with JAM. But how can they be sure they’ll be able to beat JAM Gaming? Let’s consider JAM’s F/A ratio to establish a benchmark for comparison. JAM could lose 2-3, 1-4 or 0-5, resulting final F/As of 0.944, 0.842 or 0.750 respectively:

Now, if Allstars win, here’s the permutations:

CGPL Autumn 2016 - Allstars permutations

The first thing you’ll notice is that if JAM loses 2-3 and Allstars win 3-2, they’ll have identical F/A ratios (0.944). I guess it will come down to goals for and against in this situation? The second thing you’ll note is that out of 9 possible outcomes, in 8 of them the Allstars beat JAM and take the fourth spot. IF JAM loses, and IF the Allstars win.

But what if the Allstars lose? If that happens, they’re out of the competition, and Alpha Sydney move into the three-way tie at the 3/4 W/L mark. Again, they have three possible winning outcomes, resulting in three different F/A ratios, and 9 possible outcomes when combined with JAM’s potential (loss) results:

CGPL Autumn 2016 - Alpha Sydney permutations

The difference is that Alpha Sydney’s chances are a lot tighter than the Allstars. Out of 9 scenarios, just one sees Alpha Sydney go through: JAM has to lose 0-5 and Alpha Sydney has to win 5-0. In a second scenario, it might come to goals for and against again, but here JAM has to lose 1-4 and Alpha Sydney still has to win 5-0. The other seven scenarios see JAM go through over Alpha Sydney.

Team Supremacy vs Space Animals

We haven’t mentioned them yet, so now’s as good a time as any: for Space Animals, the season is over bar the shouting. They’ve struggled all season long, and come into tonight’s match with a W/L of 1/5 and an F/A of just 0.364. No matter what happens tonight, they’ll not be going to the LAN finals. But they could still have a dramatic effect on the fortunes of their opponents, Team Supremacy.

Supremacy struggled at the start of the season, going up against the big names in Oceanic Rocket League and losing. They found a glimmer of hope in the mid-season, and they’ve bought themselves a mathematical chance to get through to the LAN finals. To begin with, they must win tonight. This will earn themselves a spot in the three-way tie with JAM Gaming and one or other of the Allstars and Alpha Sydney. Again, there are three win-permutations, resulting in F/As of 0.842, 0.944 and 1.059:

CGPL Autumn 2016 - Supremacy permutations

Now, the problem is, of course, that their possible results need to be compared with the results not just of JAM Gaming, but also of those of the other two hopefuls. Fortunately, I’ve done this for you:

CGPL Autumn 2016 - All permutations

What it boils down to is this:

– If Team Supremacy wins at all, they’ll beat JAM as long as JAM’s losses are 1-4 or 0-5.
– If JAM loses 2-3 then Supremacy has to 4-1 or 5-0 their opponents to beat JAM.
– If the Allstars win at all, then Supremacy must 5-0 Space Animals, and even if they do, Allstars is through unless they only win 3-2, in which case Supremacy is through.

Actually, that’s not entirely true, is it? Because there’s a whole string of tied F/As that will come down to whatever it is the admins will use to break the tie… someone better start counting goals for and against…

– Alpha Sydney, in any case, have the toughest odds. Alpha Sydney must win 5-0 for any chance to get through, and even so they’re out if JAM loses 2-3 or if Supremacy wins 4-1 or 5-0. And remember, they’re also out, no matter what, if Allstars win by any margin because, of course, that means they don’t make it into the three-way tie in the first place.

My brain hurts.

It’s going to be an awesome night of Rocket League, so make sure you tune into Gamestah’s Chrisis and Byza on www.twitch.tv/cgplevent from 7pm AEDT!

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